When attempting to determine the probability of an event, students in elementary school spontaneously rely on intuitive, yet often arbitrary, reasoning. Their predictions may be based on emotions, which may cause them to wish for a predicted outcome or to refute actual results. The classroom activities suggested should help foster probabilistic reasoning. This implies taking into account the uncertainty of outcomes, which may represent a challenge of sorts, since students will tend to determine outcomes by looking for patterns or expecting outcomes to balance out.^{1}
In elementary school, students observe and conduct experiments involving chance. They use qualitative reasoning to practise predicting outcomes by becoming familiar with concepts of certainty, possibility and impossibility. They also practise comparing experiments to determine events that are more likely, just as likely and less likely to occur. They list the outcomes of a random experiment using tables or tree diagrams and use quantitative reasoning to compare the actual frequency of outcomes with known theoretical probabilities.
The table below presents the learning content associated with probability. The concepts and processes targeted will provide students with increasingly complex tools that will help them develop and use all three mathematics competencies.
Student constructs knowledge with teacher guidance.
Student applies knowledge by the end of the school year.
Student reinvests knowledge.

Elementary  

Cycle One 
Cycle Two 
Cycle Three 

1  2  3  4  5  6  


































Chance, random experiment, enumeration, tree diagram Certain outcome, possible outcome, impossible outcome Event, likely, just as likely, more likely, less likely, event probability 
1.  For example, if the pointer on a twocoloured spinner (red and yellow) stops on yellow three times, students will expect it to stop on red when it’s their turn. 